For 2000 years Chinese rulers have either fixed the problems caused by their predecessors, or become the absolute ruler who brings new problems and a war. Eighteen times over the last 2000 years, the absolute ruler has chosen is to invade Vietnam. Chairman Xi Jinping took full power over China five years ago, and as I predicted then, purged the party of all other competent leaders, including his predecessor, Hu. He now has to do something, and that’s typically a war. Xi talks like he’d like to invade Taiwan, but I believe he’ll invade Vietnam instead, as so many others did before him. Taiwan (Formosa) is separated from mainland China by 100 miles of open sea. There’s been only two successful, modern invasions; by the Qing Chinese in 1683 with the help of the Dutch fleet, and in 1895 by Japan against the 5 month old Republic of Taiwan. Vietnam is much easer to invade: you just have to walk in.

Here’s my brief summary of 60 years of cyclical Chinese history: In the last decade of his life, 1966-76, Mao Zedung brought a horrible cultural revolution, killing 100 million or so by violence and famine, targeting anyone who might disagree with him. He was followed by Hua Kuofeng, Hu Yaobang, and Zhao Ziyang. They removed “the Gang of Four” and brought reform, toleration, and some rapprochement with the west. Hu also returned some autonomy to Tibet. Deng Xiaoping followed, put Zhao under house arrest, removed Hua and Hu (only recently buried), absorbed Tibet, invaded Vietnam, instituted a brutal on-child policy with, forced abortions and sterilizations, and put down the Tiananmen uprising 1989 -an uprising caused by the removal of Hu. Deng was followed by Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao who exited Vietnam, lightened the one-child policy, and brought back some measure of freedom. This lead to Xi Jinping who appears to be in the mold of Mao and Deng. He’s removed Hu publicly during a communist party meeting, has taken absolute control, arrested China’s business innovators, and (likely) caused a pandemic by unsafe research at the Wuhan bio-research facility. His response to the pandemic is worthy of Mao: he welded people into their homes. Xi now needs a war to unify the country, and talks like he’ll invade Taiwan. Xi might do it; he has increased military spending by 2.5 times, to double that of the EU (equal to US spending). His army is likely to be used somewhere soon. But where?

At first glance, it makes some sense to think he’ll invade Taiwan. He has the same justification as Deng had for Vietnam, “to punish the wayward province.” Taiwan is small, 23 million people, and very rich (GDP = $1.3T, 10-15% of China). It’s especially rich in high-tech areas that Xi seems to want, and China ruled the island (Formosa) for 212 years between 1683 and its brief independence in 1895. I expect that Xi will invade Vietnam though, for many of the same reasons that Deng did: it’s easier, and the invasion won’t destroy US trade. Vietnam will not be super easy to conquer, of course, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine looks like it will go on for years, but Xi has 100 million men of military age. Driving these men into Vietnam is a lot easier than an amphibious invasion. Vietnam now, as then, has few friends -perhaps only India -while Taiwan has many (The US and Japan, primarily), and they have naval breakwaters that would make an amphibious landing difficult. Vietnam is only about half as rich as Taiwan (GDP = $650 B), but it has two things China needs more than technology: oil and food.

Japan’s invasion of the Republic of Formosa in 1895 would have to be the model for a Chinese invasion today, assuming that’s the route Xi would take. Japan used a small force of 20,000 highly trained men, and a surprise landing at two sites. The formosan army of 75,000 was hardly armed, but it still took the Japanese 5 months to defeat them. It took another 7 years to pacify the population. Taiwan today is a lot better prepared than it was, with modern missiles and drones, a well-trained army of 500,000, and an active navy. Japan, Philippines, and the US would likely try to resupply Taiwan, and would have to be blockaded to prevent delivery. This is not so easy, since the nearest Japanese island is closer to Taiwan than Taiwan is to mainland China, and the Philippines is not far either. Then there are the sanctions that would follow an invasion of Taiwan, but not an invasion of Vietnam: the freezing of assets and the closing of markets. Susch sanctions have been tough on Russia but they would be devastating to China since China imports most of its oil and half of its food, much of it by sea. Whatever Xi gets from invading Taiwan will not match these losses, and I think Xi know it.

I suspect that Xi has already concluded that Vietnam is the smart place to invade. Supporting this view is a look at his preparations. Xi has not built the landing fleet that he’d need for Taiwan, but has instead militarized Hainan Island, plus four other, newly constructed, illegal islands in the South China Sea. These islands surround Vietnam, and are well suited to cut off the country from western aid. They are too far south to be effective in an action against Taiwan. You can tell a lot about what a person will do from what he has done, and what Xi has done is to prepare for an invasion of Vietnam.

Robert Buxbaum, April 27, 2023.