Monthly Archives: May 2022

Girls are doing better, Boys are doing far worse.

When I began college in 1972, the majority of engineering students and business students were male. They from the top of their high school classes, and from stable homes mostly; they went on to high paying jobs. Boys also dominated at the bottom of society. They were the majority of the criminals, drug addicts, and high-school dropouts. Many went off to Vietnam. Some, those who were handy, went to trade schools and a reasonable life, productive life. Society did not seem bothered by the destruction of boys in prison, or Vietnam, or by drugs, but there was an outcry that so few women achieved high academic levels. A famous presentation of the problem was called “for every 100 girls.” An updated version appears below showing the status as of October, 2021. A more detailed version appears further down.

From the table above, you can see that women are now the majority of those in college, the majority of those with a bachelors degree or higher, and a majority of those with advanced degrees. Colleges added special tutoring, special grants, and special programs. Each college had a Society of Women Engineers office, and similar programs in law and math. All of these explicitly excluded men or highly discouraged their presence. The curriculum was changed too; made more female-friendly. Dirty, and physical experiments were removed, replaced with group analysis of the social interactions — important aspects of engineers that boys were far-less adept at doing well. Perhaps society and engineering is better off now, but boys (men) are far worse off. This is particularly seem by the following chart, looking at the bottom. Boys/men provide the vast majority of the prison population, of those diagnosed as learning disabled, of those expelled, or overdosed, and among the war dead.

I’ve previously noted that a majority of boys in school are considered disruptive, and that these boys are routinely diagnosed as ADHD and drugged. It is not at all clear that this is a good thing, or that the drugs help anyone but the teacher. I’ve also noted that artwork and attitudes that were considered normal for boys are now considered disturbing and criminal like saying I wish the school was blown up. The cure here, perhaps is worse than the disease. I’m not saying that we should encourage boys to say such things, but that we should acknowledge a difference between an active and a passive wish. And we should find a way to educate boys/men so they don’t end up unemployed, addicted, or dead. Currently boy, particularly those at the bottom are on the scrap-heap of society.

Here is some source material for the above:

Robert Buxbaum, May 28, 2022

Induction

Most of science is induction. Scientists measure correlation, for example that fat people don’t run as much as thin people. They then use logic to differentiate cause from effect that is do they not run because they are fat, or are they fat because they don’t run, or is everything base on some third factor, like genetics. At every step this is all inductive logic, but that’s how science is done.

The lack of certainty shows up especially commonly in health work. Many of our cancer cures are found to not work when studied under slightly different conditions. Similarly with weight los, or heart health. I’d mentioned previously that CPAPs reduce heart fibrillation, and heart filtration is correlated with shortened life, but then we find that CPAP use does not lengthen life, but seems to shorten it. (see a reason here). That’s the problem with induction; correlation isn’t typically predictive in a useful way.

Despite these problems, this is how science works. You look for patterns, use induction, find an explanation, and try to check your results. I have an essay on the scientific methods, with quotes from Sherlock Holmes. His mysteries are a wonderful guide, and his inductive leaps are almost always true. Meanwhile, the inductive leaps of Watson and Lastrade are almost always false.

Robert Buxbaum, May 9, 2022

Biden stops fracking and gas prices go up 300% — Surprise!

Natural gas prices for June 2022 as of May 6, 2022.

Natural gas prices have quadrupled in the last 17 months. It’s gone from $2.07 per million BTU in mid January 2021 when Joe Biden took office, to nearly $9 today. It’s a huge increase in the cost to heat your home, and adds to the cost of any manufactured product you buy. Gasoline prices have risen too, going from $2/gallon when Biden took office to about $4.40 today. Biden blames the war with Russia, but the rise began almost as soon as he took office, and it far outstrips the rise in the price of wheat shown below (wheat is grown in Ukraine — it’s their major export). The likely cause is Biden’s moratorium on fracking, including his decision to stop permitting oil exploration and drilling on federal land. In recent weeks Biden has walked back some of this, to the consternation of the environmentalists. On April 15, 2022, the Interior Department announced this significant change including its first onshore lease sale since the moratorium.

Biden also cancelled the Keystone XL oil pipeline that would have brought tar-sands oil from Canada and North Dakota to Texas for refining. Blocking the pipeline helped increase gas prices here and helped cause a recession in Alberta and North Dakota. The protesters who claimed to speak for the natives are not affected.

Another issue fueling price increases is that Biden is printing money. Bidenflation is running at 8%/year. It’s not hyperinflation, but it’s getting close. It’s money taken from your pocket and from your savings. Much of the money is given to friends: to groups that Biden thinks will use it virtuously, but inflation is money taken from us, from our pockets and savings. Another beneficiary are those who are rich enough to take no salary, but live by borrowing against their real estate and corporate equity. The richest people in the US do this, earning $1 per year or less, (here’s a list compiled by Bloomberg, it’s basically every rich person). They pay no taxes, as they have no income. The only way to tax them is by tariffs, taxing what they import, but the government is against tariffs.

What you can do, personally about energy-cost inflation is not much. I would recommend insulating your home. I plan to repaint the roof white, and put in a layer of roof insulation. I also have fruit trees: an apple tree and a peach tree, grapes and a juneberry. They provide summer shade, and you get a lot of fruit with minimal work. Curtains are a good investment. Another thought is to buy solar cells. A vegetable garden is fun too, but it’s unlikely to pay you back.

Winter wheat prices are up by about 40%, likely due to the loss of supply from Ukraine and Russia

Speaking of wheat prices, they are up. They increased 40% when Russian troops invaded Ukraine, and have held steady at that level since. This is far less increase than for natural gas. Corn and rice prices are up too, but nowhere near as much. Fertilizer prices are up 300%, though, and Biden has indicated he’d like to push for a sustainable alternative; is that poop? There is a baby formula shortage too. We can handle it, I think, unless Biden get involved, or starts a hot war with Russia.

Robert Buxbaum May 10, 2022. As a fun sidelight, here is Biden answering questions about Pakistan when someone in a Bunny costume grabs him and walks him away from the reporters. Who is that masked handler? What’s going on in Pakistan?

A clever range extender for EVs

Electric vehicles work well for short trips between places where you can charge with cheap electricity. Typically that’s trips from home to a nearby place of work, and to local shopping malls and theaters with low-cost charge spots. If you drive this way, you’ll pay about 3.2¢/mile for home electricity, instead of about 17¢/mile for gasoline transport (e.g. 24 mpg with $4/gallon gas). Using an EV also saves on oil changes, transmission, air filters, belts, etc., and a lot of general complexity. Battery prices are still high, but much lower than they were even a few years ago.

The 10 kW Aquarius Engine is remarkably small and light, about 10kg (22 lb).

EVs are less attractive for long trips, especially in the cold. Your battery must provide the heat, as there is no waste heat from the engine. Expect to have to recharge every 200 -250 miles, or perhaps twice in the middle of a long trip. Each charge will take a half-hour or more, and fast charging on the road isn’t low cost. Expect to pay about 15¢/mile, nearly as much as for gasoline. See my full comparison of the economics here.

One obvious solution is to have two cars: a short commuter and an EV. Another solution is a hybrid. The Toyota’s Prius and the Chevy Volt were cutting edge in their day, but people don’t seem to want them. These older hybrids provided quick fill-ups, essentially infinite range, and about double the gas milage of a standard automobile, 30-45 mpg. The problem is you have even more complexity and maintenance than with even a gas automobile.

Aquarius liner engine as a range extender

I recently saw a small, simple, super-efficient (they say) gas engine called Aquarius. It provides 9.5 kW electric output and weighs only 22 lbs (10 kg), see picture above. A Tesla S uses about 16 kW during highway driving, implying that this engine will more than double the highway range of a Tesla S at minimal extra weight and complexity. It also removes the fear of being stranded on the highway, far from the nearest charge-station.

The energy efficiency is 34%, far higher than that for normal automobile engines, but fairly typical of floating piston linear engines. The high efficiency of these engines is partly due to the lack of tapper valves, risers, crank-shaft, and partially due to the fact that the engine always runs at its maximum power. This is very close to the maximum efficiency point. Most car engines are over sized (200 hp or so) and thus must run at a small fraction of their maximum power. This hurts the efficiency, as I discuss here. The Aquarius Engine makes electricity by the back-forth motion of its aligner rods moving past magnetic stator coils. Slots in the piston rod and in the side of the cylinder operate as sliding valves, like in a steam engine. First versions of the Aquarius Engine ran on hydrogen, but the inventors claim it can also run on gasoline, and presumably hythane, my favorite fuel, a mix of hydrogen and natural gas.

At the moment shown, slit valves in the piston rod are open to both cylinder chambers. The explosion at left will vent to the exhaust at left and out the manifold at top. The sliding valve is currently sending fresh air into the cylinder at right, but will soon send it into both cylinders to help scavenge exhaust and provide for the next cycle; engine speed and impression are determined by the mass of the piston.

A video is available to show the basic operation (see it here). The drawing at right is from that video, modified by me. Air is drawn into the engine through a sliding valve at the middle of the cylinder. The valve opens and closes depending on where the piston is. At the instant shown in the picture, the valve is open to the right. Air enters that chambered is likely exiting through slits in the hollow piston rod. It leaves through the manifold t the top, pushing exhaust along with it. When the piston will have moved enough, both the slits and the intake will close. The continued piston motion (inertially driven) will compress the air for firing. After firing, the piston will move left, generating electricity, and eventually opening the slit-valve in the piston to allow the exhaust to leave. When it moves a little further the intake will open.

The use of side-opening exhaust valves is a novelty of the “Skinner UniFlow” double-acting, piston steam engines, seen on the Badger steamship on Lake Michigan. It’s one of my favorite steam engine designs. Normally you want a piston that is much thicker than the one in the drawing. This option is mentioned in the patent, but not shown in the drawing.

Aquarius is not the only company with a free-piston range extender. Toyota built a free-piston extender of similar power and weight; it was more complex but got higher efficiency. It has variable compression though, and looks like a polluter. (the same problems might affect the Aquarius) They dropped the project in 2014. Deutsch Aerospace has a two headed version that’s more powerful, but long and heavier: 56kg and 35kW. Lotus has a crank-piston engine, also 56kg, 35kW; it’s more complex and may have service life issues, but it’s compact and relatively light, and it probably won’t pollute. Finally, Mazda is thinking of bringing back its Wankel rotary engine as a range extender. Any of these might win in the marketplace, but I like the Aquarius engine for its combination of light weight, compact size, and simplicity.

This is not to say that Aquarius motors is a good investment. Aquarius automotive went public on the Toronto exchange in December, 2021, AQUA.TA. The company has no profits to date, and the only chance of them making a profit resides in them getting a good licensing deal from an established company. The major car companies have shown no interest so far, though they clearly need something like this. Their plug in hybrids currently use standard-size, 4 stroke engines: 110-150 kW, 100-150 kg, complex, and low efficiency. Consumers have not been impressed. Tesla autos could benefit from this engine, but Musk shows no interest either.

Robert Buxbaum May 5, 2022. I have no stock in Aquarius motors, nor have I received any benefits from them, or any auto company.