Monthly Archives: March 2021

A high minimum wage killed Detroit, perhaps Seattle and NYC too.

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In July, eitght years ago, Detroit filed for bankruptcy protection. The US was well into an economic expansion, but the expansion had largely bypassed Detroit. The Detroit area unemployment rate was 9.7%, and the Detroit city rate was 17%, among the highest in the nation. Tax income was not sufficient to pay retirement or current employees. The city was riven by corruption and crime, and attendance in school was dismal, less that 25% in some districts, about 55% as an overall average. Kids no longer saw a value in education. After bankruptcy, things started to improve dramatically.

Detroit area unemployment rate, 2005 to 2021.

The largest cause of the problem, and of the solution, in my opinion, was a high Detroit minimum wage that applied before bankruptcy and that was voided by bankruptcy. It was called a “living wage”. In 2013 it was $16/ hour and applied to any business that dealt with the city and did not offer health insurance (see more on the specifics here).The stated purpose was to insure that all workers could support a family of four in some middle-class standard, by one wage-earner working 40 hours per week. It was a view of Detroit family life and economic need that didn’t match Detroit reality. In practice most of Detroit were not 4 person, one wage-earner households. It meant that most Detroiters could not find jobs, since most companies worked in some way with the city. The only workers who could find jobs were those with special skills or political connections. The alternative was criminal business including drug sales, prostitution and burglary. The unemployment rate was 70% among Detroit’s teenagers.

The high minimum wage bought loyalty for Detroit’s political bosses; they gave out jobs for kickbacks, and some went to jail, including the mayor. Most Detroiters could not find jobs, though, and this especially hurt those looking for their first job: the job that would demonstrate that math and spelling were important; that you had to show up on time, dressed clean, and that you were not to insult the customers. High unemployment meant low tax revenue, made worse by high city employment costs for basic services: janitors, secretaries, and mail room personnel. The city was a mess.

When Detroit went bankrupt, among the first changes was to eliminate the $!6/hour living wage for employees and others doing business with the city. This helped bring the city budget into balance, and it brought in residents, businesses, and developers. By January 2020 Detroit’s unemployment rate had fallen to 6%, and Detroit metro unemployment had fallen to 4.2%, the lowest rates on record. Employment gives a motivation to stay in Detroit and to stay in school: there are jobs to be had for those who could add and spell. I covered these improvements here.

Seattle are unemployment rate 2015 to 2021. Seattle’s unemployment rate is now higher than Detroit’s.

Meanwhile, Seattle voted to raise their minimum wage to $15, with the change law taking effect in stages. The law fully came into effect three months ago, in January, 2021. New York voted for similar changes more recently. It is hard to be sure of the effect of the high minimum wage but already it seems to have hit employment. By the latest data, Seattle’s unemployment rate has risen to 6.9%. That’s higher than in Detroit, a real reversal. While unemployment in New York City has yet to rise much, they have seen a drop in rent rates while Detroit has seen a rise. New York’s are also moving to be more out of balance, something that leads to corruption and bankruptcy. We’ll see how this works out.

Robert Buxbaum, March 25, 2021. Among my first blog posts were complaints about Detroit’s high “living wage”, see here for example. As Puerto Rico slid into bankruptcy, I complained about the same thing.

The remarkable efficiency of 22 caliber ammunition.

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22 long rifle shells contain early any propellant.

The most rifle cartridge in the US today is the 22lr a round that first appeared in 1887. It is suitable to small game hunting and while it is less–deadly than larger calibers, data suggests it is effective for personal protection. It is also remarkably low cost. This is because the cartridge in almost entirely empty as shown in the figure at right. It is also incredibly energy efficient, that is to say, it’s incredibly good at transforming heat energy of the powder into mechanical energy in the bullet.

The normal weight of a 22lr is 40 grains, or 2.6 grams; a grain is the weight of a barley grain 1/15.4 gram. Virtually every brand of 22lr will send its bullet at about the speed of sound, 1200 ft/second, with a kinetic energy of about 120 foot pounds, or 162 Joules. This is about twice the energy of a hunting bow, and it will go through a deer. Think of a spike driven by a 120 lb hammer dropped from one foot. That’s the bullet from a typical 22lr.

The explosive combustion heat of several Hodgdon propellants.

The Hodgdon power company is the largest reseller of smokeless powder in the US with products from all major manufacturers, with products selling for an average of $30/lb or .43¢ per grain. The CCI Mini-Mag, shown above, uses 0.8 grains of some powder 0.052 grams, or about 1/3¢ worth, assuming that CCI bought from Hodgdon rather than directly from the manufacturer. You will notice that the energies of the powders hardly varies from type to type, from a low of 3545 J/gram to a high of 4060 J/gram. While I don’t know which powder is used, I will assume CCI uses a high-energy propellant, 4000 J/gram. I now calculate that the heat energy available as 0.052*4000 = 208 Joules. To calculate the efficiency, divide the kinetic energy of the bullet by the 208 Joules. The 40 grain CCI MiniMag bullet has been clocked at 1224 feet per second indicating 130 foot pounds of kinetic energy, or 176 J. Divide by the thermal energy and you find a 85% efficiency: 176J/ 208 J = 85%. That’s far better than your car engine. If the powder were weaker, the efficiency would have to be higher.

The energy content of various 22lr bullets shot from different length barrels.

I will now calculate the pressure of the gas behind a 22lr. I note that the force on the bullet is equal to the pressure times the cross-sectional area of the barrel. Since energy equals force times distance, we can expect that the kinetic energy gained per inch of barrel equals this force times this distance (1 inch). Because of friction this is an under-estimate of the pressure, but based on the high efficiency, 85%, it’s clear that the pressure can be no more than 15% higher than I will calculate. As it happens, the maximum allowable pressure for 22lr cartridges is set by law at 24,000 psi. When I calculate the actual pressure (below) I find it is about half this maximum.

The change in kinetic energy per inch of barrel is calculated as the change in 1/2 mv2, where m is the mass of the bullet and v is the velocity. There is a web-site with bullet velocity information for many brands of ammunition, “ballistics by the inch”. Data is available for many brands of bullet shot from gun barrels that they cut shorter inch by inch; data for several 22lr are shown here. For the 40 grain CCI MiniMag, they find a velocity of 862 ft/second for 2″ barrel, 965 ft/second for a 3″ barrel, 1043 ft/second for a 4″ barrel, etc. The cross-section area of the barrel is 0.0038 square inches.

Every 22 cartridge has space to spare.

Based on change in kinetic energy, the average pressure in the first two inches of barrel must be 10,845 psi, 5,485 psi in the next inch, and 4,565 psi in the next inch, etc. If I add a 15% correction for friction, I find that the highest pressure is still only half the maximum pressure allowable. Strain gauge deformation data (here) gives a slightly lower value. It appears to me that, by adding more propellant, one could make a legal, higher-performance version of the 22lr — one with perhaps twice the kinetic energy. Given the 1/3¢ cost of powder relative to the 5 to 20¢ price of ammo, I suspect that making a higher power 22lr would be a success.

Robert Buxbaum, March 18, 2021. About 10% of Michigan hunts dear every year during hunting season. Another 20%, as best I can tell own guns for target shooting or personal protection. Just about every lawyer I know carries a gun. They’re afraid people don’t like them. I’m afraid they’re right.

Billionaire Democrats and union Republicans

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In the last presidential election, the largest billionaires in the US were vocal Democrats, and two billionaires, Yang and Bloomberg were candidates. Bloomberg had been an anticrime Republican when he ran for mayor but in 2020 he spent $!B of his own money on anti Republican ads, and paid the debts of thousands of Florida felons who he thought would vote his way. It’s a strange new world.

Other vocal Democrats include: Jeff Bezios, majority owner of Amazon and The Washington Post, Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook, Bill Gates, founder and largest owner of Microsoft (just today blasting the Republicans over global warming — Is that logical — is cold better?), and Warren Buffett who likes to note that he pays a lower tax rate than his secretary does (IMHO that’s because he games the tax system and pays no social security tax). Meanwhile union workers and white middle class folks were mostly Republicans in 2020.

Union leadership are still Democrats, but the last few elections saw union workers voting R. These were called “The basket of deplorables, unredeemables” by candidate Clinton. R support among black people is less than 50%, but growing too. it’s quite a lot higher than two decades ago. Many showed up at MAGA rallies, you’ll see plenty in videos at “the insurrection”. The only person shot and killed at the insurrection was a white woman, unarmed, shot in the face by Capital police — no charges filed, but the liberal press, who usually hate such things, was silent. Almost to the man, they sided with the police over the mob.

I notice that the Black Lives Matter rallies are populated with the well off and the well educated. A Princeton lawyer was photographed driving around with a box of Molotov cocktails, and his co-worker, another lawyer tossed a lit fire bomb into a police car. It used to be that Princeton lawyers didn’t do that, at least not in person.

Portrait of a Democrat. From the New Yorker.

It’s not like the platforms have reversed. The Democratic party was always for high taxes, high regulation, and for soft money that they could give away. They still are. In 1900 the call was for “free silver“, now it’s “stimulus money.” It used to be that rich people didn’t like this. They would point of that printing money didn’t add to wealth, but just redistributed it from those who had savings to those who did not. Now they uniformly blast anyone who doubted the wisdom of printing 1.9 trillion in new money ($6000 per person, of which $1400 is given to you), and going on to blast anyone who doesn’t like additional oversight to prevent the systemic racism they see in the less-well-off.

One reason these richest billionaires are no longer Republicans is that they are no longer involved industrial manufacturing in the US. Thus the regulations they favor don’t apply to them. In the olden days, rich people made steel or cars. Regulations were annoying. Rich industrialists had money in US banks. For them inflation was theft. Now rich people own intangible industries that largely operate outside of the country. What money they earn is earned off-shore, tax free. As individuals, they live on US debt, and possess little or no hard cash. Inflation helps them pay off their debt, and high taxes don’t hurt them. Buffett can be down-home and pro environment. He flies private jet to meetings on global warming while investing in overseas petroleum.

Elon Musk seemed like a Republican during the Trump administration, but not so much now. He still makes stuff in America, but has moved to manufacture abroad. In January, he said he was fired up for Biden. He has put a significant chunk of his wealth into bitcoins. Its a protection from the inflation caused by printing money, and it’s a bet that’s paid off handsomely. I expect that we’ll have billionaire Democrats and union Republicans for the foreseeable future.

Robert Buxbaum, March 14, 2021. It’s pie day. Eat a pie at 1:59:27. (Edited Apr. 28, 2021)

Saving the Mini, Resurrecting my MacBook.

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Our company books are done on a Mac mini 2014 that was getting slower and slower for reasons that I mis-diagnosed. I thought it was out of space on the hard drive even though the computer said there was plenty. Then my MacBook started misbehaving too, slowing to a crawl with large web-pages (Facebook) and having trouble backing up. I feared a bug of some sort. Then, 3 weeks ago, the MacBook died. It would not boot up. When I turned it on, it showed a file folder with a question mark. It was dead, but now it’s back thanks to the folks at TechBench on Woodward Ave. I lost some data, but not that much.

As it turns out, the problem was not lack of space on the hard drive, but the hard drive itself. The spinning, magnetic disc that stores my data wore out. I should have seen the problem and replaced the hard drive, but I didn’t realize you could, or should. I replaced the hard drive with a solid state memory bigger than the original, and replaced the battery too. The computer is back, faster than before, and went on to replace the hard drive on the Mini too for good measure. That was 3 weeks ago and everything is working fine.

MacBook hard drive, 120 GB. I replaced it with a solid state stick that had three times the memory and was less than half the size.

I could have bought two new computers, and I have decided to replace the 2011 desktop Mac at work, but I’m happy to have revivified these two machines. A new MacBook would have cost about $1200 while fixing this one cost should have cost $250 — $120 for the hard drive cost and $135 for the fellow who replaced it and recovered as much data as possible. Replacing the battery added another $150 with labor. I saved 2/3 the price of a new MacBook, got more hard disc, and my old programs run faster than before. Fixing up the Mini cost me $250 (no battery), and everything works fine. Because the processor is unchanged, I can still use my legacy programs (Word, pagemaker, photoshop, Quickbooks) and my music.

I’d considered trying to do the same with a 2011 Mini, but Miles at the service center said it was not worth it for a 2011 machine. I have an idea to remove the mechanism and turn this into an external, bootable drive, while transferring the data elsewhere. I’ve done this with old drives before.

In retrospect, I should have made more of an effort to backup data as soon as there was any indication that there was a problems. It was getting slower, and I needed to reboot every other day. As the disc drive wore out, data was being read less and less reliably. Data correction ate up cpu time. The fact is that I forgot I had a spinning disc-drive that could wear out. At least I learned something: hard drives wear out and need replacing. When things break, you might as well learn something. Another thing I learned is about Apple; the computers may cost more than PCs but they last. In the case of my lap book, 2014- 2021 so far.

Robert Buxbaum, March 8, 2021. This isn’t that high tech but it seems useful. As a high tech thought. It strikes me that, just as my laptop battery wore out in 7 years, an electric car battery is also likely to wear out in 7 years. Expect that to be a multi-thousand dollar replacement.