Tag Archives: hurricanes

The 2013 hurricane drought

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News about the bad weather that didn’t happen: there were no major hurricanes in 2013. That is, there was not one storm in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico with a maximum wind speed over 110 mph. None. As I write this, we are near the end of the hurricane season (it officially ends Nov. 30), and we have seen nothing like what we saw in 2012; compare the top and bottom charts below. Barring a very late, very major storm, this looks like it will go down as the most uneventful season in at least 2 decades. Our monitoring equipment has improved over the years, but even with improved detection, we’ve seen nothing major. The last time we saw this lack was 1994 — and before that 1986, 1972, and 1968.

Hurricanes 2012 -2013. This year looks like it will be the one with the lowest number and strength of modern times.

Hurricanes 2012 -2013. This year there were only two hurricanes, and both were category 1 The last time we had this few was 1994. By comparison, in 2012 we saw 5 category 1 hurricanes, 3 Category 2s, and 2 Category 3s including Sandy, the most destructive hurricane to hit New York City since 1938.

In the pacific, major storms are called typhoons, and this year has been fairly typical: 13 typhoons, 5 of them super, the same as in 2012.  Weather tends to be chaotic, but it’s nice to have a year without major hurricane damage or death.

In the news this month, no major storm lead to the lack of destruction of the boats, beaches and stately homes of the North Carolina shore.

In the news, a lack of major storms lead to the lack of destruction of the boats, beaches, and stately homes of the North Carolina shore.

The reason you have not heard of this before is that it’s hard to write a story about events that didn’t happen. Good news is as important as bad, and 2013 had been predicted to be one of the worst seasons on record, but then it didn’t happen and there was nothing to write about. Global warming is supposed to increase hurricane activity, but global warming has taken a 16 year rest. You didn’t hear about the lack of global warming for the same reason you didn’t hear about the lack of storms.

Here’s why hurricanes form in fall and spin so fast, plus how they pick up stuff (an explanation from Einstein). In other good weather news, the ozone hole is smaller, and arctic ice is growing (I suggest we build a northwest passage). It’s hard to write about the lack of bad news, still Good science requires an open mind to the data, as it is, or as it isn’t. Here is a simple way to do abnormal statistics, plus why 100 year storms come more often than once every 100 years.

Robert E. Buxbaum. November 23, 2013.

Global warming takes a 15 year rest

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I have long thought that global climate change was chaotic, rather than steadily warming. Global temperatures show self-similar (fractal) variation with time and long-term cycles; they also show strange attractors generally states including ice ages and El Niño events. These are sudden rests of the global temperature pattern, classic symptoms of chaos. The standard models of global warming is does not predict El Niño and other chaotic events, and thus are fundamentally wrong. The models assume that a steady amount of sun heat reaches the earth, while a decreasing amount leaves, held in by increasing amounts of man-produced CO2 (carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere. These models are “tweaked” to match the observed temperature to the CO2 content of the atmosphere from 1930 to about 2004. In the movie “An Inconvenient Truth” Al Gore uses these models to predict massive arctic melting leading to a 20 foot rise in sea levels by 2100. To the embarrassment of Al Gore, and the relief of everyone else, though CO2 concentrations continue to rise, global warming took a 15 year break starting shortly before the movie came out, and the sea level is, more-or-less where it was except for temporary changes during periodic El Niño cycles.

Global temperature variation Fifteen years and four El Niño cycles, with little obvious change. Most models predict .25°C/decade.

Fifteen years of global temperature variation to June 2013; 4 El Niños but no sign of a long-term change.

Hans von Storch, a German expert on global warming, told the German newspaper, der Spiegel: “We’re facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. [Further], according to the models, the Mediterranean region will grow drier all year round. At the moment, however, there is actually more rain there in the fall months than there used to be. We will need to observe further developments closely in the coming years.”

Aside from the lack of warming for the last 15 years, von Storch mentions that there has been no increase in severe weather. You might find that surprising given the news reports; still it’s so. Storms are caused by temperature and humidity differences, and these have not changed. (Click here to see why tornadoes lift stuff up).

At this point, I should mention that the majority of global warming experts do not see a problem with the 15 year pause. Global temperatures have been rising unsteadily since 1900, and even von Storch expects this trend to continue — sooner or later. I do see a problem, though, highlighted by the various chaotic changes that are left out of the models. A source of the chaos, and a fundamental problem with the models could be with how they treat the effects of water vapor. When uncondensed, water vapor acts as a very strong thermal blanket; it allows the sun’s light in, but prevents the heat energy from radiating out. CO2 behaves the same way, but weaker (there’s less of it).

More water vapor enters the air as the planet warms, and this should amplify the CO2 -caused run-away heating except for one thing. Every now and again, the water vapor condenses into clouds, and then (sometimes) falls as rain or show. Clouds and snow reflect the incoming sunlight, and this leads to global cooling. Rain and snow drive water vapor from the air, and this leads to accelerated global cooling. To the extent that clouds are chaotic, and out of man’s control, the global climate should be chaotic too. So far, no one has a very good global model for cloud formation, or for rain and snowfall, but it’s well accepted that these phenomena are chaotic and self-similar (each part of a cloud looks like the whole). Clouds may also admit “the butterfly effect” where a butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in New Jersey if it flaps at the right time.

For those wishing to examine the longer-range view, here’s a thermal history of central England since 1659, Oliver Cromwell’s time. At this scale, each peak is an El Niño. There is a lot of chaotic noise, but you can also notice either a 280 year periodicity (lat peak around 1720), or a 100 year temperature rise beginning about 1900.

Global warming; Central England Since 1659; From http://www.climate4you.com

It is not clear that the cycle is human-caused,but my hope is that it is. My sense is that the last 100 years of global warming has been a good thing; for agriculture and trade it’s far better than an ice age. If we caused it with our  CO2, we could continue to use CO2 to just balance the natural tendency toward another ice age. If it’s chaotic, as I suspect, such optimism is probably misplaced. It is very hard to get a chaotic system out of its behavior. The evidence that we’ve never moved an El Niño out of its normal period of every 3 to 7 years (expect another this year or next). If so, we should expect another ice age within the next few centuries.

Global temperatures measured from the antarctic ice showing stable, cyclic chaos and self-similarity.

Global temperatures measured from the antarctic ice showing 4 Ice ages.

Just as clouds cool the earth, you can cool your building too by painting the roof white. If you are interested in more weather-related posts, here’s why the sky is blue on earth, and why the sky on Mars is yellow.

Robert E. Buxbaum July 27, 2013 (mostly my business makes hydrogen generators and I consult on hydrogen).

What causes the swirl of tornadoes and hurricanes

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Some weeks ago, I presented an explanation of why tornadoes and hurricanes pick up stuff based on an essay by A. Einstein that explained the phenomenon in terms of swirling fluids and Coriolis flows. I put in my own description that I thought was clearer since it avoided the word “Coriolis”, and attached a video so you could see how it all worked — or rather that is was as simple as all that. (Science teachers: I’ve found kids love it when I do this, and similar experiments with centrifugal force in the class-room as part of a weather demonstration).

I’d like to now answer a related question that I sometimes get: where does the swirl come from? hurricanes that answer follows, though I think you’ll find my it is worded differently from that in Wikipedia and kids’ science books since (as before) I don’t use the word Coriolis, nor any other concept beyond conservation of angular momentum plus that air flows from high pressure to low.

In Wikipedia and all the other web-sits I visited, it was claimed that the swirl came from “Coriolis force.” While this isn’t quite wrong, I find this explanation incomprehensible and useless. Virtually no-one has a good feel for Coriolis force as such, and those who do recognize that it doesn’t exist independently like gravity. So here is my explanation based on low and high pressure and on conservation of angular momentum.  I hope it will be clearer.

All hurricanes are associated with low pressure zones. This is not a coincidence as I understand it, but a cause-and-effect relationship. The low pressure center is what causes the hurricane to form and grow. It may also cause tornadoes but the relationship seems less clear. In the northern hemisphere, the lowest low pressure zones are found to form over the mid Atlantic or Pacific in the fall because the water there is warm and that makes the air wet and hot. Static air pressure is merely the weight of the air over a certain space, and as hot air has more volume and less density, it weighs less. Less weight = less pressure, all else being equal. Adding water (humidity) to air also reduces the air pressure as the density of water vapor is less than that of dry air in proportion to their molecular weights. The average molecular weight of dry air is 29 and the molecular weight of water is 18. As a result, every 9% increase in water content decreases the air pressure by 1% (7.6 mm or 0.3″ of mercury).

Air tends to flow from high pressure zones to low pressure zones. In the northern hemisphere, some of the highest high pressure zones form over northern Canada and Russia in the winter. High pressure zones form there by the late fall because these regions are cold and dry. Cold air is less voluminous than hot, and as a result additional hot air flows into these zones at high altitude. At sea level the air flows out from the high pressure zones to the low pressure zones and begins to swirl because of conservation of angular momentum.

All the air in the world is spinning with the earth. At the north pole the spin rate is 360 degrees every 24 hours, or 15 degrees per hour. The spin rate is slower further south, proportionally to the sine of the latitude, and it is zero at the equator. The spin of the earth at your location is observable with a Foucault pendulum (there is likely to be one found in your science museum). We normally don’t notice the spin of the air around us because the earth is spinning at the same rate, normally. However the air has angular momentum, and when air moves into into a central location the angular speed increases because the angular momentum must be conserved. As the gas moves in, the spin rate must increase in proportion; it eventually becomes noticeable relative to the earth’s spin. Thus, if the air starts out moving at 10 degrees per hour (that’s the spin rate in Detroit, MI 41.8° N), and moves from 800 miles away from a low pressure center to only 200 miles from the center, the angular momentum must increase four times, or to 40 degrees per hour. We would only see 30 degrees/hr of this because the earth is spinning, but the velocity this involves is significant: V= 200 miles * 2* pi *30/360 = 104 mph.

To give students a sense of angular momentum conservation, most science centers (and colleges) use an experiment involving bicycle wheels and a swivel chair. In the science centers there is usually no explanation of why, but in college they tend to explain it in terms of vectors and (perhaps) gauge theories of space-time (a gauge is basically a symmetry; angular momentum is conserved because space is symmetric in rotation). In a hurricane, the air at sea level always spins in the same direction of the earth: counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere, clockwise in the southern, but it does not spin this way forever.

The air that’s sucked into the hurricane become heated and saturated with water. As a result, it becomes less dense, expands, and rises, sucking fresh air in behind it. As the hot wet air rises it cools and much of the water rains down as rain. When the, now dry air reaches a high enough altitude its air pressure is higher than that above the cold regions of the north; the air now flows away north. Because this hot wet air travels north we typically get rain in Michigan when the Carolinas are just being hit by hurricanes. As the air flows away from the centers at high altitudes it begins to spin the opposite direction, by the way, so called counter-cyclonally because angular momentum has to be consevered. At high altitudes over high pressure centers I would expect to find cyclones too (spinning cyclonally) I have not found a reference for them, but suspect that airline pilots are aware of the effect. There is some of this spin at low altitudes, but less so most of the time.

Hurricanes tend to move to the US and north through the hurricane season because, as I understand it, the cold air that keeps coming to feed the hurricane comes mostly from the coastal US. As I understand it the hurricane is not moving as such, the air stays relatively stationary and the swirl that we call a hurricane moves to the US in the effective direction of the sea-level air flow.

For tornadoes, I’m sorry to say, this explanation does not work quite as well, and Wikipedia didn’t help clear things up for me either. The force of tornadoes is much stronger than of hurricanes (the swirl is more concentrated) and the spin direction is not always cyclonic. Also tornadoes form in some surprising areas like Kansas and Michigan where hurricanes never form. My suspicion is that most, but not all tornadoes form from the same low pressure as hurricanes, but by dry heat, not wet. Tornadoes form in Michigan, Texas, and Alabama in the early summer when the ground is dry and warmer than the surrounding lakes and seas. It is not difficult to imagine the air rising from the hot ground and that a cool wind would come in from the water and beginning to swirl. The cold, damp sea air would be more dense than the hot, dry land air, and the dry air would rise. I can imagine that some of these tornadoes would occur with rain, but that many the more intense?) would have little or none; perhaps rain-fall tends to dampen the intensity of the swirl (?)

Now we get to things that I don’t have good explanation for at all: why Kansas? Kansas isn’t particularly hot or cold; it isn’t located near lakes or seas, so why do they have so many tornadoes? I don’t know. Another issue that I don’t understand: why is it that some tornadoes rotate counter cyclonicly? Wikipedia says these tornadoes shed from other tornadoes, but this doesn’t quite seem like an explanation. My guess is that these tornadoes are caused by a relative high pressure source at ground level (a region of cold ground for example) coupled with a nearby low pressure zone (a warm lake?). My guess is that this produces an intense counter-cyclonic flow to the low pressure zone. As for why the pressure is very low in tornadoes, even these that I think are caused by high pressure, I suspect the intense low pressure is an epee-phenomenon caused by the concentration of spin — one I show in my video. That is, I suspect that the low pressure in the center of counter-cyclonic tornadoes is not the cause of the tornado but an artifact of the concentrated spin. Perhaps I’m wrong here, but that’s the explanation that seems to fit best with the info I’ve got. If you’ve got better explanations for these two issues, I’d love to hear them.

Why tornadoes and hurricanes lift up cars, cows, etc.

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Here’s a video I made for my nieces and any other young adults on why it is that tornadoes and hurricanes lift stuff up. It’s all centrifugal forces — the same forces that generate the low pressure zone at the center of hurricanes. The explanation is from Albert Einstein, who goes on show why it is that rivers don’t run straight; before you read any more of it, I’d suggest you first watch the video here. It’s from my Facebook page, so it should be visible.

If can’t see, you may have to friend me on Facebook, but until then the video shows a glass coffee cup with some coffee grounds and water in it. Originally, the grounds are at the bottom of the cup showing that they are heavier than the water. When I swirl the water in the cup, you’ll see that the grounds are lifted up into a heap in the center with some flowing all around in a circle — to the top surface and then to the walls of the cup. This is the same path followed by light things (papers for example) in a tornado. Cows, houses and cars that are caught up in real tornadoes get sucked in and lifted up too, but they never get to the top to be thrown outward.

The explanation for the lifting is that the upper layers of liquid swirl faster than the lower layers. As a result there is a low pressure zone above the middle of the swirl. The water (or air) moves upward into this lower pressure area and drags along with it cows, cars, houses and the like (Here’s another post on the subject of where the swirl comes from). The reason the swirl is faster above the bottom of the cup is that the cup bottom adds drag to the flow (the very bottom isn’t swirling at all). The faster rotating, upper flows have a reasonable amount of centrifugal force and thus a lower pressure in the middle of the swirl, and a higher pressure further out. The non-rotating bottom has a more uniform pressure that’s relatively higher in the middle, and relatively lower on the outside. As a result there is a secondary flow where air moves down around the outside of the flow and up in the middle. You can see this secondary flow in the video by following the lighter grounds.

Robert. E. Buxbaum. Weather is not exactly climate, but in my opinion both are cyclic and chaotic. I find there is little evidence that we can stop climate change, and suspect there is no advantage to wanting the earth colder. There was a tornado drought in 2013, and a hurricane draught too. You may not have heard of either because it’s hard to report on the storms that didn’t happen.