Category Archives: politics

Shrunken clothes and keffiyehs: anti Trump fashion

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Donald Trump has a lot of signature behaviors, including his “America first” politics, his hair, his ‘tan,’ his way of speech, and his way of wearing suits. Half of America finds them attractive or at least OK, while the other half finds them super-unattractive. Trump seems to have a super-power, that there is no middle. Those who dislike him dislike everything about him to his policies to his clothes. Let Trump propose immigration control, and the opposition demands open borders. Let Trump propose tariffs, an ole Republican approach to diplomacy that is thought to bring in Jobs, and the opposition (even unions!) goes crazy for free trade.

Trump likes dark colors, long ties, long jackets, and long sleeves on his suits.

In the book “Fear”, by Bob Woodward’s first story is about folks on Whitehouse staff stealing Trump’s first tariff proposal from his desk in an effort to prevent it being signed. Whatever they thought of the tariff (it was not that weird, and didn’t do much) the fact that they stole it showed the dramatic reaction people have. In this case, folks who otherwise understood that they are there to serve the president, not to overturn his policies.

LeBron James in the Thom Browne, Anti Trump look. The pants are too short, as are the sleeves and jacket. Note the dull grey color and the short, dull-grey tie. The fellow behind him is dressed normal or Trumpish: dark clothes, long sleeves, bright, long tie.

In terms of fashion, the anti-Trump fever is to react against Trump’s choice of suits in dark colors, paired with bright ties that hang below the waist. The anti men’s fashion has moved to dull grey suits and short, grey ties. Trumps’s suits’s typically have extra-long long sleeves and long pant legs that hit the shoe-top. He likes long jackets too, that to me look vaguely like Lincoln’s. The fashion back-lash is men are wearing ridiculously short pants and jackets, with socks showing.

LeBron James, at right, is wearing a complete mens, anti-Trump look, likely a Thom Browne suit, a very expensive ill fit. This suit doesn’t look comfortable, but it’s fashion, and as I’ve said before, you’ve got to suffer for fashion.

There is also a woman’s version of anti Trump fashion. The Trump women wore feminine, closely fitting clothing and wore their hair long. The anti-Trump women’s look is the opposite; it includes short hair and masculine, often covered. This is paired with loose fitting male clothes: cargo pants or combat fatigues. Topping it off, ideally ideally is a checkered, keffiyeh scarf, either over the head or around the neck. The style of scarf was made popular by former PLO head, Yassar Arafat. This look is particularly popular on college campuses and at demonstrations. It implies that the wearer supports Palestine (Trump supported Israel), and shows you are part of the cool set. The wearer, herself, is typically is not in favor of kidnapping or rape or putting babies in oven, but they are so strongly anti Israel and Trump that they are OK with it, especially if it is Jews being kidnapped, rabed, or cooked alive. They will call for Jews to be gassed or tortured. It’s part of being in the in-crowd, and antisemitism is what’s in these days — it’s been popular for many centuries.

The women’s anti-Trump look includes short hair and a keffiyeh scarf. Photo from WRLN Florida.

It is a misconception to think that those wearing the keffiye don’t understand that they would not live long if they had to dwell among the Arabs they support. These feminists do understand, as do the ‘Queers for Palestine’. They’d never want to live in even the most moderate Arab country, the same way that those supporting Mao would never want to live in China under Mao. It is fashion, and like all fashion, it’s a mob behavior that exists only for fashion’s sake. In this case there is the added advantage that you get to hit Jews and break their windows — something that is particularly attractive for feminist women, I notice; the majority of people at the Palestine protests are women.

Robert Buxbaum November 7, 2023.

To make social security fairer, raise the ceiling.

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For most working folks, the majority of your taxes are social security, certainly the majority of your federal taxes. The tax structure of SS is strongly weighted to help the rich. This is a fact that politicians have created and typically hide. Both parties proclaim tax help for the middle class, by instituting income tax changes that barely affect anyone, and really sticking it to the low wage-earner and middle class by a highly recessive SS tax that charges 14.2% off the top for a self-employed person, or 7.1% for an employee, but only to a cut-off of $160,000.

Anyone making more than this pays nothing on the overage, with the result that high earners, on a percent basis, pay essentially 0% tax. The rest of the high eaters income is generally protected by deductions. His car is a work expense, rented from the company, his travel is too. The working plumber benefits from these same deductions, but ends up paying 14.2% because of Social Security, while someone earning $1.6 million ends up paying 1.42% effectively.

People earring more than $1.6 million gain credit for other exemptions. Bill Gates has been buying farm land and claims the depreciation of the land value. Land does not actually depreciate, but you can claim it does because people like him get to fix the tax code (Donald Trump gets the same deduction, BTW on his gold courses). Less rich folks can still deduct the high cost of country club membership, of travel, entertainment, and meetings in exotic places (you can claim some of that too). Because so much of what you pay is Social security, it will come out that, while the executive may pay more in absolute tax, he or she will pay far less as a percentage. Many rich folks claim to find this offensive, but neglect to suggest the most obvious correction raise the ceiling on social security and (ideally) lower the the %.

I strongly suspect that we could bill for social security at 5% and 10% if we raised the ceiling to $2,000,000 per year. I suspect that SS would then be more solvent too. The net result would be drastically fairer.

Robert E. Buxbaum, April 23, 2023

Solving the evening solar power problem

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Solar power is only available during the day, and people need power at night too. As a result, the people of a town will either need a lot of storage, or a back-up electric generator for use at night and on cloudy days. These are expensive, and use gasoline (generally) and they are hard to maintain for an individual. Central generated alternate power is cheaper, but the wires have to be maintained. As a result, solar power is duck curve, or canon curve power. It never frees you from hydrocarbons and power companies, and it usually saves no money or energy.

People need power at twilight and dawn too, and sunlight barely generates any power during these hours, and sometimes clouds appear and disappear suddenly while folks expect uniform power to their lights. The mismatch between supply and demand means that your backup generator, must run on and off suddenly. It’s difficult for small, home generators, but impossible for big central generators. In order to have full power by evening, the big generators need to run through the day. The result is that, for most situations, there is no value to solar power.

Installed solar power has not decreased the amount of generation needed, just changed when it is needed.

Power leveling through storage will address this problem, but it’s hardly done. Elon Musk has suggested that the city should pay people to use a home battery power leveler, a “power wall” or an unused electric car to provide electricity at night, twilight, and on cloudy days. It’s a legitimate idea, but no city has agreed, to date. In Europe, some locations have proposed having a central station that generates hydrogen from solar power during the day using electrolysis. This hydrogen can drive trucks or boats, especially if it is used to make hythane. One can also store massive power by water pumping or air compression.

Scottsbluff Neb. solar farm damaged by hail, 6/23.

In most locations, storage is not available, so solar power has virtually no value. I suspect that, at the very least, in these locations, the price per kWh should be significantly lower at noon on a sunny day (1/2 as expensive or less). The will cause people to charge their eVs at noon, and not at midnight. Adjusted prices will cause folks to do heavy manufacturing at noon and not at midnight. We have the technology for this, but not the political will, so far. Politicians find it easier to demand solar, overcharge people (and industry) and pretend to save the environment.

Robert Buxbaum Aug 8, 2023

The Ukraine war could go for years. Don’t make a famine.

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Russia is a collapsing, corrupt state with no meaningful elections. It is also the biggest exporter of food, fertilizer, gas, and oil. Nearly 2 years ago, it invaded Ukraine, another collapsing, corrupt, food-exporting state with suspended elections.

Both countries are in the midst of demographic collapse, with Ukraine worse off. Ukraine was invaded though, and thus has the better claim to our support. Then again Russia has atomic bombs. It’s also the largest exporter of wheat (or was), while Ukraine is only the 5th largest (or was before the war). The other three big exporters are the US, Canada, and France. They have benefitted financially, but don’t have near enough output to make up for lost Russian and Ukrainian production.

Ukraine’s grain terminals in flames, Odessa..

Food and energy prices have gone up, world wide, and will probably continue to rise as the war stretches on. This could lead to a global famine and mass starvation, particularly in the poorest areas of Africa, the Mid East, and India. Unfortunately, the war is popular and patriotic, in Europe, Russia, Ukraine, and the US. It’s good business for our armaments industry, and for our recent mega-farmers (like Bill Gates). Also, for our political and spy class. They spend with little government oversight, and just recently misplaced $16 billion. Surely some of that lost money snuck back to the CIA and our politicians’ pockets. We’d have oversight, but “there’s a war on.”

As wars go, the death toll is low, a total of 354,000 dead and injured on both sides, as revealed by recently leaked documents. This is a small fraction of the countries population. Russia has lost 223,000 soldiers killed or wounded, 0.2% of the population, while the Ukrainians had lost 131,000. That’s 0.3%, many of them civilians. The death rate in the two countries during this time was 3.1 million people, 1.8% of the total, mostly from heart disease, accidents, and alcoholism.

The Ukrainian population. Lots of retirees, few kids, very few of military age. This is a disaster, not a country.

Even more destructive to Russia and Ukraine is the demographic collapse. The fertility rate in Russia is 1.5 child per woman, up fro 1.2 in 2000. For a stable population at low infant death, you need about 2.1 children per woman. Russia has had this low rate for a generation, at least 30 years. The net result is that we can expect that Russia’s population will drop by a third or so over the next generation, about 50 million. In Ukraine the fertility rate is even lower, 1.21 per woman, up from 1.1. It’s been this way for 30 years, the equivalent of killing off 1/2 of the population. Aside from leaving the countries full of old people, with no one to do the work, the demographic collapse is producing a cultural shift that virtually guarantees the breakup of Ukraine and the Russian federation. Europe also has this problem, but they have immigration, and that helps a little. Russia has no immigration, and recently resorted to kidnapping Ukrainian children.

The loss of Russian and Ukrainian exports means famine for the poor importers and food inflation for all.

The coming food and energy shortage is likely to lead to mass migration, I expect. Europe has stopped taking delivery of Russian food and energy, in solidarity with Ukraine. Meanwhile Russia has been destroying Ukrainian fields and food infrastructure. Russia ruined a dam last month, flooding Ukraine’s fields, and yesterday destroyed the grain terminals at the port of Odessa,. This was tit-for-tat since Ukraine destroyed a key bridge, and Crimea’s irrigation canal. What’s more, evidence suggests that Ukraine blew up the Nord Stream pipeline — a key source of finance for Russia and Germany. This sort of tit-for-tat escalated to WWI, fueled by a belief, on both sides, that they would win “decisively and quickly.”

The result of WWI is that Germany was the biggest loser, losing men and land, and suffering a killing famine in 1916. It militarized to prevent it happening again, leading to WWII. Germany is the biggest loser of this war, I’d say, aside from Ukraine. I fear it will militarize. Russia invaded Ukraine but claims a need to militarize. Biden’s promise that Ukraine’s will join NATO is a threat to Russia, as is our delivery of F16s, missiles and cluster bombs. We are killing Russians, and Putin doesn’t like it. Add to this, that Ukraine’s claim for independence rests mostly on its Nazi collaboration. For the good of everyone, maybe we can stop adding gasoline to this fire.

Ukraine deserves our support, I think, but that support need not go beyond small-ish arms, energy deliveries, and tariffs on Russian goods. I think we should Ukraine and Russia export food and energy. Even without WWIII, a world famine and a military Germany does no one any good.

Robert Buxbaum, July 20, 2023. When I was a teen, it was a given that war was bad. Now, for some reason, the kids are in for war, especially the more liberal classes. I find this absolutely bizarre.

I’d like to expand the Jones act so more ships can do US trade.

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If you visit most any European port city, you’ll see a lot more shipping than in the Midwestern US. In Detroit, where I am, your’ll see an occasional ore boat from Wisconsin, and an occasional tourist cruise, but nothing to compare to German, Belgian, or Turkish ports. The reason for the difference is “The Jones act.”

The port of Istanbul with many ships

The Jones act , also known as “The Merchant Marine Act of 1920”, requires that all ships depositing cargo or people between US ports must be US owned, US built, US captained, US flagged, and at least 70% US manned. This raises costs and reduces options. The result is that few ships can move people or cargo between US cities, and these ships are older and less efficient than you’ll see elsewhere. World wide water traffic costs about 1/8 that of rail traffic per ton-mile, but in the US, the prices are more comparable. The original justification was to make sure the US would always have a merchant marine. The Jones act does that, sort of, but mostly, it just makes goods more expensive and travel more restrictive.

The port of Detroit — we rarely see more than one ship at a time.

Because it does some good, I don’t want to get rid of the Jones act entirely, but I’d like to see US shipping options expanded. Almost any expansion would do, e.g. allowing 50% US manned ships delivering along US rivers, or expanding to allow Canadian built ships or flagged, and ships that are more than 50% US owned, or expanding to any NAFTA vessel that meets safety standards. Any expansion of the number of ships available and would help.

The jones act increase the price of oil transport by a factor of five, about.

Currently, the only exceptions to the Jones act are for emergencies (Trump voided the act during several storms) and for ships that visit a foreign port along the route. This exception is how every cruise ship between California and Hawaii works. They’re all foreign, but they stop in Mexico along the way. Similarly, cruises between Florida and Puerto Rico will stop in Bermuda typically, because the ships are foreign owned. Generally, passengers are not allowed to get off in Puerto Rico, but must sleep on board. This is another aspect of the Maritime act that I’d like to see go away.

Because of the Jones act, there is some US freight-ship building, and a supply of sailors and captains. A new, US ore-ship for the Great Lakes was launched last year, so far it’s been used to carry salt. There is also a US built and operated cruise ship in Hawaii, the “Pride of America,” that makes no stop in Mexico. I’d like to see these numbers expanded, and the suggestions above seem like they’d do more good than harm, lowering prices, and allowing modern container ships plus roll-on-roll-off car transports. Our rivers and lakes are super highways; I’d like to see them used more.

The port of Antwerp – far busier than Detroit.

Another way to expand the Jones act while perhaps increasing the number of US-built and operated ship would be through a deal with Canada so that ships from either country could ply trade on either countries rivers. As things stand, Canada has its own version of the Jones act, called the Coastal Trade Act where Canadian vessels must be used for domestic transport (cabotage) unless no such vessel is available. Maybe we can strike a deal with Canada so that the crew can be Canadian or US, and where built ships in either country are chosen on routes in either country, providing they meet the safety and environmental requirements of both.

Robert Buxbaum, June 14, 2023.

Disney was a narcissist, like Trump, Putin, Musk, and Martin Luther King. It’s not a disease.

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Among TV psychiatrists, the universal opinion of Trump, Putin, and Musk, that these individuals are narcissists, a psychological disease related to “toxic masculinity.” Musk, for his part claims the excuse of Asperger’s disease, high-functioning Autism. I half agree with the Narcissist diagnosis, and I’m confused by the Asperger’s claim because I don’t believe these folks are diseased. My sense is they have a leadership personality trait, common in all visionary leaders including Disney, Martin Luther King, and Genghis Khan. I’ve argued that it is important for a president to be a narcissist, and have explained Trump’s vision, “Make America great again” as independence.

Psychological narcissism, short for Narcissistic Personality Disorder, is a disease when it hurts the narcissists life. It is defined as a pattern of exaggerated feelings of self-importance, along with an excessive need for admiration. If it just annoys people it/s a disease, but it’s found among leaders, suggesting it’s not all bad. To get you to follow them, leaders present themselves as mini-messiahs, and try to get you to see them that way. They have a plan, a vision. If it’s successful, they’re visionaries. They fight to bring the vision into reality, which is very annoying to anyone who doesn’t see it or want it. But that’s leadership. Without it nothing big gets done.

Disney’s vision. Not everyone was pleased; quite a few considered him a tyrant.

For the narcissist to succeed, he or she must sell the vision, and his ability to get it done. The plan to get there is often vague and unattractive. These details are shared with only a few. You must see the leader there and yourself too, if you’re to fight for it. Disney was particularly visual, see photo. He got folks to buy into a building a magical kingdom with a private police force, where everyone is happy and cartoon characters glide among the paying visitors.

The majority of those who run into a narcissist reject both the vision and the narcissist. They fear any change, and fear that the success of the visionary will diminish them. For that reason, they run to no-bodies. But some see it, and follow, others throw stones. Disney got state officials to exempt him from state laws, and extend normal copyrights. Others smirked, and worked to stop him, but with less energy: it’s hard to be enthusiastic about no Disneyland. The conflict between doers and the smirkers is the subject of several Ayn Rand books, including The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged. She calls the opposing smirkers, “parasites”, “looters”, “moochers,” and my favorite: “do gooders.” It’s for the common good that the narcissist should fail, they claim.

Often these opponents have good reasons to oppose. The Ayatollah Khomeini had a vision similar to Disney: an Islamic Republic in Iran where everyone is happy being a devout Muslim of his stripe. The opponents feared, correctly, that everyone who was not happy would be flogged, hanged, or beheaded. I think it’s legitimate to not want to be forced to be devout. Similarly, with Genghis Khan, or Vladimir Putin. Putin compares himself to Peter the Great who expanded Russia and conquered Crimea. The opponents have legitimate fears of WWII and claim that Ukrainian independence is semi legit. Regarding Musk’s plans to colonize Mars, I note that Neil Armstrong and Gene Cernan have come out against it. There is no right or wrong here, but I have a soft spot for the visionaries, and a suspicion of the “smirkers” and “do gooders.”

Genghis Khan. He saw himself as a world changer. Some followed, some didn’t. Those who followed didn’t think he was crazy.

The smirkers and do-gooders include the most respectable people of today. They are thought leaders, who lose status if someone else exceeds them. They are surprised and offended by Martin Luther King’s dream, and Musk’s, Khomeini’s, Trump’s, and Lenin’s. Trump became president against formidable odds, and the smirkers said it was a fluke, he then lost, and they claimed it showed they were right. He may get a second term, though, and Musk may yet build a community on Mars. To the extent that the visionary succeeds, the smirkers claim it was easy; that they could have done the same, but faster and better. They then laud some fellow smirker, and point out aspects of the vision that failed. In any case, while the narcissist is definitely abnormal, it’s not a disease, IMHO. It’s what makes the world go round.

Robert Buxbaum, June 7, 2023

Rain barrels aren’t much good. Wood chips are better, And I’d avoid rain gardens, even as a neighbor.

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A lot of cities push rain barrels as a way to save water and reduce flooding. Our water comes from the Detroit and returns to it as sewage, so I’m not sure there is any water saving, but there is a small cash saving (very small) if you buy 30 to 55 gallon barrels from the city and connect them to the end of your drain spout. The rainwater you collect won’t be pure enough to drink, or safe for bathing, but you can use it to water your lawn and garden. This sounds OK, even patriotic, until you do the math, or the plumbing, or until you consider the wood-chip alternative.

The barrels are not cheap, even when subsidized they cost about $100 each. Add to this the cost and difficulty of setting up the collection system and the distribution hose. Water from your rain barrel will not flow through a normal nozzle as there is hardly any pressure. Expect watering to take a lot longer than you are used to.

40 gallon rain barrels. Two of these give about 70 usable gallons every heavy rain fall. That’s about 70¢ worth.

In Michigan you can not leave the water in your barrel over the winter, the water will freeze and the barrel will crack. You have to drain the tank completely every fall, an almost impossible task, and the tank is attached to a rainspout and the last bit of water is hard to get out. Still, you have to do it, or the barrel will crack. And the savings for all this is minimal. During a rainy month, you don’t need this water. During a dry month, there is no water to use. Even at the best, the The marginal cost of water in our town is less than 1¢ per gallon. For all the work and cost to set up, two complete 40 gallon tanks (like those shown) will give you at most about 70 usable gallons. That’s to say, almost 70¢ per full filling.

How much lawn can you water? Assume you like to water your lawn to the equivalent of 1″ of rain per week, your 70 gallons will water about 154 ft2 of lawn or garden, virtually nothing compared to the typical Michigan 2000 ft2 lawn. You’ll still have to get most of your water from the city’s main. All that work, for so little benefit.

Young trees with chip volcanos, 1 ft high x18″. Spread the chips to the diameter of the leaves.You don’t need more than 2″.

A far better option is wood chips. They don’t cover a lawn, but they’re great for shrubs, trees or a garden. Wood chips are easy to spread, and they stop weeds and hold water. The photo at left shows a wood chips around the shrubs, and a particularly poor use of wood chips around the trees. For shrubs, trees, or a garden, I suggest you put down 1 to 2 inches of wood chips. Surround a young tree at that depth to the diameter of the branches. Do not build a “chip volcano,” as this lazy landscaper has done.

Consider that, covering 500 ft2 of area to a depth of 1.5 inches will take about 60 cubic feet of wood chips. That will cost about $35 dollars at the local Home Depot. This is enough to hold about 1.25″ or rainwater, That’s about 100 ft3 or water or 800 gallons. The chips prevent excess evaporation while preventing weeds and slowly releasing the water to your garden. You do no work. The chips take almost no work to spread, and will keep on working for years, with no fear of frost-damage. A as the chips stop working, they biocompost slowly into fertilizer. That’s a win.

There is a worst option too, called a rain garden. This is often pushed by environmental-gooders. You dig a hole near your downspout, perhaps ten feet in diameter, by two feet deep, and plant native grasses (weeds). When it rains, the hole fills with water creating a mini wetland that will soon smell like the swamp that it is. If you are not lucky, the water will find a way to leak into your basement. If that’s your problem look here. If you are luckier, your mini-swamp will become the home of mosquitos, frogs, and snakes. The plants will grow, then die, and rot, and look awful. It is very hard to maintain native grasses. That’s why people drain swamps and grow trees or turf or vegetables. If you want to see a well-maintained rain garden, they have two on the campus of Lawrence Tech. A wetland isn’t bad, but you want drainage, Make a bioswale or muir.

Robert Buxbaum, May 31, 2023. I ran for water commissioner some years back.

Right to work is a right.

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In 26 states you can work in a unionized industry without joining a union. You can even cross a union strike line if you like. It’s called “right to work.” Michigan allowed it up till last month, but no longer. Immediately following the Democrats’ taking majority of the MI legislature, they voted to make non-union membership illegal. The claim was that those who do not want to be represented by the state-acknowledged union is misguided, or worse.

The argument for making union membership mandatory is presented in the poster at right. It notes that states that banned right to work are richer, with workers getting higher pay and benefits. These include California, New York, NJ, Washington, Alaska,.. See the map below. Although these states, on average have higher yearly wages, they also have higher taxes, higher costs of living, and more high-tech jobs. The cause and effect implied by this poster is erroneous, I think: The claim is that if you are forced to join a union you will be paid more with more benefits. I strongly suspect that the reality is that these states have high wages and high benefits and a lot of people working in safe fields, programming for example. They then force workers to work for one union so they’ll be easier managed, not because they want a strong opposition.

Another thing, even if you could guarantee higher wages by forced union membership, and you could avoid the high taxes and high cost of living that you find in NY and California, no person should be forced to accept representation by a group that they don’t get to choose, or who supports social goals that the worker doesn’t support. I don’t believe this is fair, or moral, but that’s how it is. It’s the law in most every state with a Democrat as governor and where Democrats control the legislature.

Right to work as of last month, before Michigan forced unionism.

Union membership had been declining in Michigan for years, but it took a particular nose dive in 2016 when the unions spent heavily for Clinton while blue collar workers supported Trump. It was 14% or workers before the law changed. Workers claimed that their unions were working against them, and complained about how their dues were spent. It also came out that some of the Michigan union bosses had stolen money from their funds to build fancy private houses — using non-union labor to do it. When the union bosses tried to show their muscle by calling strikes, the strikes accomplished little, or went on for months. The results were two-tier salaries, layoffs, and business failures. The working for the local newspapers teamsters struck, and one newspaper collapsed. The other chose non-union drivers. The teamsters are still on strike, 10 years later. I’d think a worker should be able to leave a union like this.

I’m a fan of unions, but think the worker should be able to choose. I’m a particular fan of craft unions that work to improve the quality of their work along with the quality of their workers lives. This helps everyone. I suspect that unions should not be able to support political parties too. See my thoughts on unions, here.

Michigan has a particularly strong history of crooked union bosses. When Jimmy Hoffa challenged the Teamster bosses over how the retirement fund was spent, he vanished. The union’s bosses seem to have had him killed. The last place where he was seen alive is an Andiamo Restaurant near my home. He was picked up by someone he knew, perhaps his nephew. No one’s talking and his remains were never found. In Michigan you used to be able to choose your union just as you chose your political club and your own lawyer, or you could choose none at all. Nowadays, the law says otherwise. Maybe you don’t like this law. Maybe you don’t like the union boss or how he’s spending. Maybe you’d like to visit with Jimmy Hoffa.

Robert Buxbaum May 19, 2023. Aside from everything else, you have a right to have a state that isn’t high-wage, high-tax, even if you could prove people were happier in such states. Freedom is a good, in and of itself.

Canada’s doctor-assisted suicide killed 10,064 in 2021

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Canada’s healthcare is free to the user. It’s paid for by taxes, and it includes a benefit you can’t get in the US: free, doctor assisted suicide, euthanasia. This is a controversial benefit, forbidden in the Hippocratic oath because it’s close to murder, and includes the strong possibility of misuse of trust. Assistance by a trusted professional can be a bit likes coercion, and that starts to look like murder — especially since the professional often has a financial incentive to see you off.

From Charlie Hebdot (a French, humor magazine): The medical association refuses to participate in euthanasia — Why? People are already dining quite well on their own waiting in the emergency room.

In 2021, according to Statistics Canada, Canada assisted the suicide of 10,064 people, 3.3% of all Canadian deaths. There were about 4,000 more, non-assisted suicides. In Quebec, the Canadian Provence where Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) is most popular, 5.1% of deaths result from MAID. The Netherlands has a similar program that results in 4.8% of deaths. In Belgium, it’s 2.3%. These countries’ suicide rates are far higher than in the US, and account for far more deaths, per capita than from guns in the US. My guess is that suicide is common because it is free and professional. It’s called “Dignity in Dying,” in Europe, a title that suggests that old folks who don’t die this way are undignified.

In Canada, about 80% of those who requested MAiD were approved. A lot of the remainder were folks who died or changed their mind before receiving the fatal dose. If you attempt suicide on your own, it’s likely you won’t succeed, and you may not try again. With doctor assisted suicide, you’re sure to succeed (even if you change your mind after you get your lethal shot?)

In Canada you don’t have to be terminally ill to get MAiD, you just have to be in pain, and extreme psychological pain counts. Beginning March 17, 2024, depression will be added as a legitimate reason. According to Canadian TV news, depressives are lining up (read some interviews here). Belgium and Netherlands allows elders to be euthanized for dementia, and children to be euthanized on the recommendation of their parents. France passed similar legislation, but the doctors refused to go along, see cartoon. I applaud the French doctors.

Rodger Foley says he’s being pressured to ask for medical suicide, picture from the NY Post

There have been persistent claims that Canadian doctors and nurses push assisted suicide on poor patients, telling them how much bother they are and how much resources they are using. There has been an outcry in British and American newspapers, e.g. here in the Guardian, and in the NY Post, but not in Canada, so far. Rodger Foley, a patient interviewed by the NY Post, recorded conversations where his doctors and nurses put financial pressure on him. “They asked if I want an assisted death. I don’t. I was told that I would be charged $1,800 per day [for hospital care]. “I have $2 million worth of bills. Nurses here told me that I should end my life.” He claims they went so far as to send a collection agency to further pressure him. In another case, a disabled Canadian veteran asked for a wheelchair ramp, and was told to apply for MAiD.

Even without outside pressure, many people seeking MAiD often cite financial need as part of the reason. A 40 year old writer interviewed by Canadian television said that he can’t work and lives in poverty on a disability payment of just under $1,200 a month. “You know what your life is worth to you. And mine is worthless.”

The center of the argument is the value of a person in a social healthcare state when their economic value is less than the cost of keeping them alive. Here, Sabine Hossenfelder, an excellent physicist, argues that the best thing one could do for global warm and to preserve resources is to have fewer people. Elon Musk says otherwise, but Ms Hossenfelder claims this only shows he is particularly unworthy. There’s a Germanic logic here that gave us forced euthanasia in the 1940s.

I find euthanasia abhorrent, especially when it’s forced on children, the elderly, and depressed folks. I also reject the scary view of global warming, that it is the death of the earth. I’ve argued that a warm earth is good, and that a cold earth is bad. Also, that people are good, that they are the reason for the world, not its misfortune. It seems to me that, if suicide aid must be provided, state-funded hospitals should not provide it. They have a financial incentive to drop non-paying, annoying patients. That seems to be happening in Canada. A patient must be able to trust his or her doctor, and that requires a belief that the doctor’s advice is for his or her good. Unfortunately, Canadian politicians have decided otherwise. I say hurray for the doctors of France for not going along.

Robert Buxbaum, April 25, 2023. The medical profession is shady even when you pay for services, see Elvis Presley’s prescription. There’s always a financial interest. Even based on old data, the US is not a particularly high-murder country if suicide is considered murder.

China won’t invade Taiwan, perhaps Vietnam

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For 2000 years Chinese rulers have either fixed the problems caused by their predecessors, or become the absolute ruler who brings new problems and a war. Eighteen times over the last 2000 years, the absolute ruler has chosen is to invade Vietnam. Chairman Xi Jinping took full power over China five years ago, and as I predicted then, purged the party of all other competent leaders, including his predecessor, Hu. He now has to do something, and that’s typically a war. Xi talks like he’d like to invade Taiwan, but I believe he’ll invade Vietnam instead, as so many others did before him. Taiwan (Formosa) is separated from mainland China by 100 miles of open sea. There’s been only two successful, modern invasions; by the Qing Chinese in 1683 with the help of the Dutch fleet, and in 1895 by Japan against the 5 month old Republic of Taiwan. Vietnam is much easer to invade: you just have to walk in.

Chiang KaiShek with Roosevelt and Churchill. He took power after WWII.Taiwan is now a Republic

Here’s my brief summary of 60 years of cyclical Chinese history: In the last decade of his life, 1966-76, Mao Zedung brought a horrible cultural revolution, killing 100 million or so by violence and famine, targeting anyone who might disagree with him. He was followed by Hua Kuofeng, Hu Yaobang, and Zhao Ziyang. They removed “the Gang of Four” and brought reform, toleration, and some rapprochement with the west. Hu also returned some autonomy to Tibet. Deng Xiaoping followed, put Zhao under house arrest, removed Hua and Hu (only recently buried), absorbed Tibet, invaded Vietnam, instituted a brutal on-child policy with, forced abortions and sterilizations, and put down the Tiananmen uprising 1989 -an uprising caused by the removal of Hu. Deng was followed by Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao who exited Vietnam, lightened the one-child policy, and brought back some measure of freedom. This lead to Xi Jinping who appears to be in the mold of Mao and Deng. He’s removed Hu publicly during a communist party meeting, has taken absolute control, arrested China’s business innovators, and (likely) caused a pandemic by unsafe research at the Wuhan bio-research facility. His response to the pandemic is worthy of Mao: he welded people into their homes. Xi now needs a war to unify the country, and talks like he’ll invade Taiwan. Xi might do it; he has increased military spending by 2.5 times, to double that of the EU (equal to US spending). His army is likely to be used somewhere soon. But where?

At first glance, it makes some sense to think he’ll invade Taiwan. He has the same justification as Deng had for Vietnam, “to punish the wayward province.” Taiwan is small, 23 million people, and very rich (GDP = $1.3T, 10-15% of China). It’s especially rich in high-tech areas that Xi seems to want, and China ruled the island (Formosa) for 212 years between 1683 and its brief independence in 1895. I expect that Xi will invade Vietnam though, for many of the same reasons that Deng did: it’s easier, and the invasion won’t destroy US trade. Vietnam will not be super easy to conquer, of course, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine looks like it will go on for years, but Xi has 100 million men of military age. Driving these men into Vietnam is a lot easier than an amphibious invasion. Vietnam now, as then, has few friends -perhaps only India -while Taiwan has many (The US and Japan, primarily), and they have naval breakwaters that would make an amphibious landing difficult. Vietnam is only about half as rich as Taiwan (GDP = $650 B), but it has two things China needs more than technology: oil and food.

The Japanese invasion of independent Taiwan, The Republic of Formosa, in 1895. It took 5 months despite lopsided advantages. Plus 7 years to pacify the population.

Japan’s invasion of the Republic of Formosa in 1895 would have to be the model for a Chinese invasion today, assuming that’s the route Xi would take. Japan used a small force of 20,000 highly trained men, and a surprise landing at two sites. The formosan army of 75,000 was hardly armed, but it still took the Japanese 5 months to defeat them. It took another 7 years to pacify the population. Taiwan today is a lot better prepared than it was, with modern missiles and drones, a well-trained army of 500,000, and an active navy. Japan, Philippines, and the US would likely try to resupply Taiwan, and would have to be blockaded to prevent delivery. This is not so easy, since the nearest Japanese island is closer to Taiwan than Taiwan is to mainland China, and the Philippines is not far either. Then there are the sanctions that would follow an invasion of Taiwan, but not an invasion of Vietnam: the freezing of assets and the closing of markets. Susch sanctions have been tough on Russia but they would be devastating to China since China imports most of its oil and half of its food, much of it by sea. Whatever Xi gets from invading Taiwan will not match these losses, and I think Xi know it.

China’s new military bases are located around Vietnam, not around Taiwan

I suspect that Xi has already concluded that Vietnam is the smart place to invade. Supporting this view is a look at his preparations. Xi has not built the landing fleet that he’d need for Taiwan, but has instead militarized Hainan Island, plus four other, newly constructed, illegal islands in the South China Sea. These islands surround Vietnam, and are well suited to cut off the country from western aid. They are too far south to be effective in an action against Taiwan. You can tell a lot about what a person will do from what he has done, and what Xi has done is to prepare for an invasion of Vietnam.

Robert Buxbaum, April 27, 2023.